Monday, September 20, 2010

Voor je zilver koopt moet je eerst dit lezen!

Silver is gaining in popularity.

Gold bugs, the "world is coming to an end" crowd, fiat currency detractors, and other folks who normally recommend buying gold as a way to protect one's wealth are now turning to silver. And with good reason.

Silver is a cheap alternative.

With gold trading for $1,240 per ounce, and an ounce of silver trading for about $20, it takes 62 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. Just a few short years ago, that ratio was down around 50. So while both these precious metals have enjoyed terrific gains, gold has gone up faster than silver – which makes silver cheap relative to gold.

The argument makes sense, I suppose. And if you're in the market for precious metals, there may be more profit potential in silver than in gold. But before you leap headfirst into the smelter, consider this chart...


This is a 60-minute chart of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) – an exchange-traded fund that tracks the price of silver. You can see the terrific run the metal has enjoyed over the past two weeks. The price action has been almost parabolic. It is, however, likely a case of too much too soon.

The chart displays a dangerous rising-wedge formation. We've seen many examples of this pattern this year, and it almost always leads to a rough period for the stock.


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SLV broke through the downside of the wedge yesterday. So it could now retrace its climb all the way back down to $18 per share.

I'm not necessarily recommending selling silver here. And I'm not interested in trying to profit on the short side of a precious-metals trade.

But if you're thinking of joining the growing crowd of silver believers, it may make sense to hold off buying the metal for a week or two.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

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