Saturday, July 31, 2010
Quote van albert einstein
Wie denkt dat het leven geen zin heeft is niet alleen ongelukkig....., maar heeft er helemaal niets van begrepen!
Thursday, July 29, 2010
5 Ways to Lose Good Customers
Een goed stuk van E-myth
While this statement may be quite true at the most basic level, it also serves to underscore the reality that one of the ongoing purposes of a business should be to keep a customer. No business owner would argue this point, but creating and maintaining quality customer relationships is often one of the biggest challenges facing small businesses.
Please Come Back Again
One of the dangers that befall many businesses is the tendency to become accustomed to having customers, to slip into a default mode of expectations: that the customers are happy, that they’ll keep coming back, that they’ll tell others about you. The problem is that customers are people—and people thrive on relationships. And if we are not careful our customer relationships can become superficial and even counter-productive.
No one wants to feel that they are being taken for granted and customers are no different. Again, customers are people and people must be related to, not processed! Simply “going through the motions” for your customers with the mindless expectation that they will always be there is a sure path to customer attrition. And an increasing factor in customer fickleness is the sheer volume of choices that available in almost every industry and every product or service. In many ways the business owner is not simply working to gain a customer’s patronage, but is actually engaged in a contest to win the hearts of those individuals!
Surefire Ways to Drive Business Away
There are certain clichés in business that are dubious in their truth, such as “the customer is always right.” But one that is undoubtedly true is that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to find a new one. With this in mind let’s look at some of the most detrimental errors small businesses make in this arena:
5 ways to lose good customers
1. Ignore Your Customers. This cardinal sin can be achieved in person, on the phone, and even over the Internet. Many retail companies adopt a “10 Foot Rule” that requires customers to be acknowledged if the employee is within ten feet of them. Greeters at the door are not only good for Wal-Mart, and acknowledging customers by answering phones quickly and with a smile is just good business.
2. Make it Difficult to do Business With You. Customers shouldn’t have to work at giving you their money. And they shouldn’t have a fight on their hands if they need to return your product or are unhappy with your service. If you make it hard on your customers someone else is always willing to go the extra mile for them.
3. Display a Lack of Integrity. Whether this is simply staff making excuses for poor service or products, or engaging in sales or marketing practices that can be perceived as deceptive, being a trusted and reliable business is an absolute essential. No one likes to feel lied to or treated in a way that is less than honest.
4. Become Dull and Predictable. This doesn’t mean sacrificing reliability and standards of quality and excellence, but customers expect innovation. And people being people, they are stirred by positive surprise and delight – just because your business has been around for fifty years doesn’t mean it has to look and act like it.
5. Don’t Listen to Your Customers. We live in an age where product and company reviews are being posted for posterity across the Internet, and perhaps on your company’s own website. Therefore, it is critical for you to hear what your customers are saying and respond. This can also mean reviewing relevant blogs, performing regular market research and simply talking to your customers.
One of my clients recently began conducting educational seminars for her clients with the stated goal of providing valuable information as a “bonus” to her normal services. However, in the Q&A portion of the presentation she turns the tables on her audience by asking them key questions with intent of ferreting out the issues and concerns of her clients that she might not ever hear otherwise.
Another E-Myth client regularly meets with his entire staff to discuss customer questions, tips and best practices, and to elicit ideas for innovations and improvements to their services and products. The synergy of bringing together the “frontline” employees with the management team with a focus on their customers works to create an atmosphere and company culture that is customer-centric and service oriented.
What a Customer Wants
While the customer may not always be right, there is one cliché that cannot be discounted or ignored: The customer rules. And this means that the needs, wants and desires of your customers must come first in developing the processes and procedures of your client fulfillment realm. This means that for many businesses changes will need to occur as they can no longer afford to have “business as usual.”
For some this means making regular and ongoing efforts to “listen” to their customers: What do they like about your business? Your products? Your service? And, perhaps more importantly, what is that they don’t particularly like? Communication is vital and this implies intentionality and strategy on the part of the business owner. For others it will mean taking pains to create a customer-centric business model: one that takes into account the primacy of the customer and recognizes that the product or the brand is not the focus.
The good news is that today’s business world is awash with technology and new forums for conversation that allow you to not only engage your customers and prospects, but to keep your finger on the “pulse” of your customer base. And despite the vast number of choices and competition facing not only you, but your customers, the opportunities are equally vast to win the hearts—and loyalty—of your customers.
While this statement may be quite true at the most basic level, it also serves to underscore the reality that one of the ongoing purposes of a business should be to keep a customer. No business owner would argue this point, but creating and maintaining quality customer relationships is often one of the biggest challenges facing small businesses.
Please Come Back Again
One of the dangers that befall many businesses is the tendency to become accustomed to having customers, to slip into a default mode of expectations: that the customers are happy, that they’ll keep coming back, that they’ll tell others about you. The problem is that customers are people—and people thrive on relationships. And if we are not careful our customer relationships can become superficial and even counter-productive.
No one wants to feel that they are being taken for granted and customers are no different. Again, customers are people and people must be related to, not processed! Simply “going through the motions” for your customers with the mindless expectation that they will always be there is a sure path to customer attrition. And an increasing factor in customer fickleness is the sheer volume of choices that available in almost every industry and every product or service. In many ways the business owner is not simply working to gain a customer’s patronage, but is actually engaged in a contest to win the hearts of those individuals!
Surefire Ways to Drive Business Away
There are certain clichés in business that are dubious in their truth, such as “the customer is always right.” But one that is undoubtedly true is that it is cheaper to keep an old customer than to find a new one. With this in mind let’s look at some of the most detrimental errors small businesses make in this arena:
5 ways to lose good customers
1. Ignore Your Customers. This cardinal sin can be achieved in person, on the phone, and even over the Internet. Many retail companies adopt a “10 Foot Rule” that requires customers to be acknowledged if the employee is within ten feet of them. Greeters at the door are not only good for Wal-Mart, and acknowledging customers by answering phones quickly and with a smile is just good business.
2. Make it Difficult to do Business With You. Customers shouldn’t have to work at giving you their money. And they shouldn’t have a fight on their hands if they need to return your product or are unhappy with your service. If you make it hard on your customers someone else is always willing to go the extra mile for them.
3. Display a Lack of Integrity. Whether this is simply staff making excuses for poor service or products, or engaging in sales or marketing practices that can be perceived as deceptive, being a trusted and reliable business is an absolute essential. No one likes to feel lied to or treated in a way that is less than honest.
4. Become Dull and Predictable. This doesn’t mean sacrificing reliability and standards of quality and excellence, but customers expect innovation. And people being people, they are stirred by positive surprise and delight – just because your business has been around for fifty years doesn’t mean it has to look and act like it.
5. Don’t Listen to Your Customers. We live in an age where product and company reviews are being posted for posterity across the Internet, and perhaps on your company’s own website. Therefore, it is critical for you to hear what your customers are saying and respond. This can also mean reviewing relevant blogs, performing regular market research and simply talking to your customers.
One of my clients recently began conducting educational seminars for her clients with the stated goal of providing valuable information as a “bonus” to her normal services. However, in the Q&A portion of the presentation she turns the tables on her audience by asking them key questions with intent of ferreting out the issues and concerns of her clients that she might not ever hear otherwise.
Another E-Myth client regularly meets with his entire staff to discuss customer questions, tips and best practices, and to elicit ideas for innovations and improvements to their services and products. The synergy of bringing together the “frontline” employees with the management team with a focus on their customers works to create an atmosphere and company culture that is customer-centric and service oriented.
What a Customer Wants
While the customer may not always be right, there is one cliché that cannot be discounted or ignored: The customer rules. And this means that the needs, wants and desires of your customers must come first in developing the processes and procedures of your client fulfillment realm. This means that for many businesses changes will need to occur as they can no longer afford to have “business as usual.”
For some this means making regular and ongoing efforts to “listen” to their customers: What do they like about your business? Your products? Your service? And, perhaps more importantly, what is that they don’t particularly like? Communication is vital and this implies intentionality and strategy on the part of the business owner. For others it will mean taking pains to create a customer-centric business model: one that takes into account the primacy of the customer and recognizes that the product or the brand is not the focus.
The good news is that today’s business world is awash with technology and new forums for conversation that allow you to not only engage your customers and prospects, but to keep your finger on the “pulse” of your customer base. And despite the vast number of choices and competition facing not only you, but your customers, the opportunities are equally vast to win the hearts—and loyalty—of your customers.
Think this Is Bad? Wait Until the Next Disaster
Een goed stuk van Robert Kiyosaki
The world knows BP is a disaster, a monster of a disaster. BP's disaster makes Hurricane Katrina look like a rain shower.
Every time a TV news station shows oil gushing from a broken pipe -- one mile below the ocean's surface -- the world gets sick. Scenes of oil-soaked pelicans struggling for life both angers and saddens us. The financial losses endured by small businesses and fishermen cannot be imagined, let alone conveyed by the media interviews. BP is a disaster with a scope beyond comprehension.
I was in England when President Barack Obama blamed and criticized BP for this tragedy. His criticism sparked the anger of the British. Politicians wanted him to tone it down, to be more careful in his choice of words. British Prime Minister David Cameron told Obama not to "go after BP for the sake of it." Virgin's Richard Branson said he was "kicking a company while it was on its knees." Their concern was not for the environment or those suffering the ravages of this disaster. Their concern was for the pensioners who are counting on BP for a secure retirement.
On June 17, London's Daily Mail ran a headline screaming, "Obama Bullies BP into £13.5bn Fund for Oil Spill Victims... but British Pensioners will Pick Up the Bill." The British are angry with Obama for pressuring BP to suspend dividend payments and set aside $20 billion for the cleanup. Obama's strong-arm position has not only affected British pensioners, who own 40% of BP, but American pension funds, who own 39%, as well. In other words, the economic damage of the BP disaster goes far beyond the Gulf. The damage is spreading to pensions, pensioners, and portfolios all around the world.
An Atmosphere Changed
While in London, I decided to go to dinner at Canary Wharf, ground zero for the next BP. Only a few years ago, Canary Wharf was one of the centers of the financial universe. Condo prices were sky high, offices were packed, and high-paid bankers filled Canary Wharf with wealth and excitement. Today, Canary Wharf seems to be dying. It has lost its vibrancy. Many restaurants and offices were nearly empty and there were few lights to be seen in those once-high-priced condos.
And Canary Wharf's ‘BP' stands for Bomb Production. Canary Wharf is much like AIG, a factory for exotic financial products known as derivatives. The problem is that most people do not know what these murky and mysterious products are -- and that includes the people who make them or buy them. It's why Warren Buffett has called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction." That is how powerful they are. During World War II, a ship exploded while loading bombs for transport at Port Chicago, California. The explosion flattened everything for miles. It is said that the ship's anchor, which weighed tons, was found more than six miles away. Derivatives -- financial bombs -- have the same power if they accidently detonate inside a bank's balance sheet.
The subprime disaster was a result of financial bombs -- derivatives -- exploding in financial institutions such as AIG and Lehman Brothers, as well as banks and financial institutions throughout the world. After the bombs AIG manufactured exploded, AIG received $181 billion in taxpayer funding and immediately sent $11.9 billion to France's Société Générale, $11.8 billion to Deutsche Bank, and $8.5 billion to Barclays Bank of Britain. U.S. taxpayer money was going to bailout banks around the world. During the last three months of 2008, AIG was losing more than $27 million an hour. That is how powerful these derivatives can be. The problem I see is this: There are many more such bombs still sitting in balance sheets all over the world.
Financial Bombs All Over the World
Military bombs are classified by weight: 500-, 750-, and 1,000-pound bombs. Financial bombs have interesting labels such as CDO (collateralized debt obligations), ABS (asset backed securities), and CDS (credit default swaps). While they sound exotic and sophisticated, when put in everyday language, a CDO is simply debt sold as an asset. And CDS, or swaps, are simply a form of insurance.
Since the insurance industry is strictly regulated, and the bomb factories producing CDS did not want to comply with insurance industry regulations, they simply called them ‘swaps,' rather than insurance.
To make matters worse, rating agencies such as Moody's and S&P (and even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) blessed these financial bombs as safe, sound, and good for you. It was almost as good as the pope blessing these products. In 2007, the subprime boom busted, and we know what happened from there.
The problem is that approximately $700 trillion of these financial time bombs are still in the system. While people watch the BP disaster in the Gulf, few people are aware of the other BP, the financial bomb production that is still going on. If this derivative market begins to collapse, we will see another BP disaster.
Can't Clean Up the Next Disaster
Most of us know there is not enough money in the world to clean up the Gulf. The same is true with the $700 trillion derivatives market. If just 1% of the $700 trillion derivatives market goes bust, that is a $7 trillion disaster. The entire U.S. economy is only $14 trillion annually. A 10% failure, equating to $70 trillion, would probably bring down the world economy. As with the BP Gulf disaster, there is not enough money in the world to clean up the next BP disaster.
Could such a financial disaster happen? The answer is "Yes." In fact, just as President Obama pressured BP into doing the "right thing," he is also pressuring the financial markets to do the right thing. The president and our congressional leaders are pushing through financial reform legislation. My concern is that, if not handled delicately, it is this financial reform that will set off the derivative time bomb... the next BP.
Currently, derivatives are traded over-the-counter, also known as off-exchange trading. This means derivatives are uncontrolled, unregulated, and unsupervised. The proposed financial reform legislation is pushing to have derivatives traded through an exchange. This will bring greater transparency and control. My concern is, when this happens, the reform will reveal fraud and failures we do not yet know about today. It will be like turning on the light and watching the cockroaches (bankers) run for cover.
While it is commendable that President Obama holds the rich and powerful accountable, I wonder what the price will be.
How many BPs can we afford?
The world knows BP is a disaster, a monster of a disaster. BP's disaster makes Hurricane Katrina look like a rain shower.
Every time a TV news station shows oil gushing from a broken pipe -- one mile below the ocean's surface -- the world gets sick. Scenes of oil-soaked pelicans struggling for life both angers and saddens us. The financial losses endured by small businesses and fishermen cannot be imagined, let alone conveyed by the media interviews. BP is a disaster with a scope beyond comprehension.
I was in England when President Barack Obama blamed and criticized BP for this tragedy. His criticism sparked the anger of the British. Politicians wanted him to tone it down, to be more careful in his choice of words. British Prime Minister David Cameron told Obama not to "go after BP for the sake of it." Virgin's Richard Branson said he was "kicking a company while it was on its knees." Their concern was not for the environment or those suffering the ravages of this disaster. Their concern was for the pensioners who are counting on BP for a secure retirement.
On June 17, London's Daily Mail ran a headline screaming, "Obama Bullies BP into £13.5bn Fund for Oil Spill Victims... but British Pensioners will Pick Up the Bill." The British are angry with Obama for pressuring BP to suspend dividend payments and set aside $20 billion for the cleanup. Obama's strong-arm position has not only affected British pensioners, who own 40% of BP, but American pension funds, who own 39%, as well. In other words, the economic damage of the BP disaster goes far beyond the Gulf. The damage is spreading to pensions, pensioners, and portfolios all around the world.
An Atmosphere Changed
While in London, I decided to go to dinner at Canary Wharf, ground zero for the next BP. Only a few years ago, Canary Wharf was one of the centers of the financial universe. Condo prices were sky high, offices were packed, and high-paid bankers filled Canary Wharf with wealth and excitement. Today, Canary Wharf seems to be dying. It has lost its vibrancy. Many restaurants and offices were nearly empty and there were few lights to be seen in those once-high-priced condos.
And Canary Wharf's ‘BP' stands for Bomb Production. Canary Wharf is much like AIG, a factory for exotic financial products known as derivatives. The problem is that most people do not know what these murky and mysterious products are -- and that includes the people who make them or buy them. It's why Warren Buffett has called derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction." That is how powerful they are. During World War II, a ship exploded while loading bombs for transport at Port Chicago, California. The explosion flattened everything for miles. It is said that the ship's anchor, which weighed tons, was found more than six miles away. Derivatives -- financial bombs -- have the same power if they accidently detonate inside a bank's balance sheet.
The subprime disaster was a result of financial bombs -- derivatives -- exploding in financial institutions such as AIG and Lehman Brothers, as well as banks and financial institutions throughout the world. After the bombs AIG manufactured exploded, AIG received $181 billion in taxpayer funding and immediately sent $11.9 billion to France's Société Générale, $11.8 billion to Deutsche Bank, and $8.5 billion to Barclays Bank of Britain. U.S. taxpayer money was going to bailout banks around the world. During the last three months of 2008, AIG was losing more than $27 million an hour. That is how powerful these derivatives can be. The problem I see is this: There are many more such bombs still sitting in balance sheets all over the world.
Financial Bombs All Over the World
Military bombs are classified by weight: 500-, 750-, and 1,000-pound bombs. Financial bombs have interesting labels such as CDO (collateralized debt obligations), ABS (asset backed securities), and CDS (credit default swaps). While they sound exotic and sophisticated, when put in everyday language, a CDO is simply debt sold as an asset. And CDS, or swaps, are simply a form of insurance.
Since the insurance industry is strictly regulated, and the bomb factories producing CDS did not want to comply with insurance industry regulations, they simply called them ‘swaps,' rather than insurance.
To make matters worse, rating agencies such as Moody's and S&P (and even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) blessed these financial bombs as safe, sound, and good for you. It was almost as good as the pope blessing these products. In 2007, the subprime boom busted, and we know what happened from there.
The problem is that approximately $700 trillion of these financial time bombs are still in the system. While people watch the BP disaster in the Gulf, few people are aware of the other BP, the financial bomb production that is still going on. If this derivative market begins to collapse, we will see another BP disaster.
Can't Clean Up the Next Disaster
Most of us know there is not enough money in the world to clean up the Gulf. The same is true with the $700 trillion derivatives market. If just 1% of the $700 trillion derivatives market goes bust, that is a $7 trillion disaster. The entire U.S. economy is only $14 trillion annually. A 10% failure, equating to $70 trillion, would probably bring down the world economy. As with the BP Gulf disaster, there is not enough money in the world to clean up the next BP disaster.
Could such a financial disaster happen? The answer is "Yes." In fact, just as President Obama pressured BP into doing the "right thing," he is also pressuring the financial markets to do the right thing. The president and our congressional leaders are pushing through financial reform legislation. My concern is that, if not handled delicately, it is this financial reform that will set off the derivative time bomb... the next BP.
Currently, derivatives are traded over-the-counter, also known as off-exchange trading. This means derivatives are uncontrolled, unregulated, and unsupervised. The proposed financial reform legislation is pushing to have derivatives traded through an exchange. This will bring greater transparency and control. My concern is, when this happens, the reform will reveal fraud and failures we do not yet know about today. It will be like turning on the light and watching the cockroaches (bankers) run for cover.
While it is commendable that President Obama holds the rich and powerful accountable, I wonder what the price will be.
How many BPs can we afford?
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
What's $550 Million Among Friends?
Een goed stuk van Robert Kiyosaki
Goldman Sachs has more ex-executives working for the US Treasury and the Fed than any other Wall Street firm. You could say they're pretty good friends. So it may surprise you to find that the Fed just fined Goldman $550 million.
Until you realize that's only three-day's wages for Goldman.
In his latest Conspiracy of the Rich bulletin, Robert Kiyosaki explores why the cards are stacked against the average person—and why Goldman can get away with cheating.
klik op deze link om je hiervoor in te schrijven en het te lezen: http://www.conspiracyoftherich.com
Goldman Sachs has more ex-executives working for the US Treasury and the Fed than any other Wall Street firm. You could say they're pretty good friends. So it may surprise you to find that the Fed just fined Goldman $550 million.
Until you realize that's only three-day's wages for Goldman.
In his latest Conspiracy of the Rich bulletin, Robert Kiyosaki explores why the cards are stacked against the average person—and why Goldman can get away with cheating.
klik op deze link om je hiervoor in te schrijven en het te lezen: http://www.conspiracyoftherich.com
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
“Watch Brilliant Compensation”
Een goede film van dr charles king en mr tim sales over hoe geld voor jouw kan werken met network marketing werkt.
http://cde.explorefreedom.com/en/playmovie-SWF.cfm?&CFID=8602629&CFTOKEN=98908728&SID=16451E034A0246580309145A1C5F144D00425306131E59024A5E1302455905135854085513554C4759031658085F&MODE=LIVE&xcf1=&xcf2=&xcf3=&xcf4=&xcf5=
http://cde.explorefreedom.com/en/playmovie-SWF.cfm?&CFID=8602629&CFTOKEN=98908728&SID=16451E034A0246580309145A1C5F144D00425306131E59024A5E1302455905135854085513554C4759031658085F&MODE=LIVE&xcf1=&xcf2=&xcf3=&xcf4=&xcf5=
Monday, July 26, 2010
interview met Ted Butler van 24 juli 2010
Een goed interview met Ted Butler over de zilver en goudmarkt.
klik op deze link om het te horen: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/7/24_Ted_Butler_on_the_Metals_Market.html
klik op deze link om het te horen: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/7/24_Ted_Butler_on_the_Metals_Market.html
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Bill Miller: "Een unieke kans doet zich voor"
Een goed stuk van Hendrik Oude Nijhuis
Bill Miller, zelf een bewonderaar van Warren Buffett, is zoals u misschien weet fondsbeheerder bij Legg Mason Capital Management. Hij beheert daar een vermogen van vele tientallen miljarden. Maar bovenal is Bill Miller bekend om een opmerkelijke prestatie: tussen 1991 en 2005 wist hij ieder jaar de beurs te kloppen. Vandaar ook dat er nog altijd een grote schare beleggers is die het reilen en zeilen van Bill Miller tracht te volgen.
En volgens Bill Miller zijn aandelen momenteel goedkoop. Zeker relatief gezien. Aangaande grote Amerikaanse multinationals spreekt hij zelfs over een "once in a lifetime opportunity". Zijn recente schrijven vindt u hier zelf terug:
http://tinyurl.com/Bill-Miller-juli-2010
Redenatie
De actuele afkeer van aandelen is in de ogen van Bill Miller goed verklaarbaar: "Aandelen leverden de afgelopen tien jaar een negatief rendement op, terwijl 'risicoloze' obligaties juist sterk in waarde zijn gestegen. En nu obligaties ook nog eens het beste halfjaar in een decennium achter de rug hebben is dit voor velen het bewijs dat aandelen op termijn simpelweg de moeite niet waard zijn."
Niet enkel dit jaar leverden obligaties (vooralsnog) een beter rendement dan aandelen op, ook over de afgelopen periodes van 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 en 20 jaar presteerden obligaties beter dan aandelen. En zelfs over de afgelopen 25 jaar leverenden aandelen maar amper een iets beter rendement op dan de vaak risicoloos geachte obligaties.
De goede rendementen van obligaties worden volledig verklaard door de alsmaar dalende rente sinds begin jaren tachtig. Rente en obligaties zijn communicerende vaten: daalt de rente dan stijgen obligaties. En vice versa. Nu is de rente al sinds de jaren '80, toen we een periode van hoge inflatie kenden, gestaag aan het dalen. Dit verklaart dan ook het alsmaar stijgen van de koersen van obligaties, in het bijzonder van staatsobligaties van door beleggers 'veilig' geachte landen.
Vandaar ook dat vandaag de dag vele Westerse overheden goedkoper dan ooit tevoren geld kunnen lenen. Omdat de rente momenteel in de buurt van het absolute nulpunt bevindt is een verdere daling vrijwel uitgesloten (tenzij u rekent op een lange periode van deflatie; dan kan de rente wellicht nog net wat zakken). Het opwaartse koerspotentieel voor obligaties is daarmee in de ogen van Bill Miller uiterst beperkt. Wij zijn eenzelfde mening toegedaan.
Aandelen
Omgekeerd aan wat bij obligaties het geval is geldt dat bij aandelen de waarderingen juist verder weggezakt zijn. Met name grote multinationals hebben hun winsten het afgelopen decennium gestaag weten op te voeren. Hun koersniveaus bleven echter op z'n best stabiel, en daalden in veel gevallen zelfs. Daardoor daalden de waarderingen fors. Bill Miller stelt dat aandelen vergeleken met obligaties nu inmiddels de meest aantrekkelijke waarderingen kennen sinds 1951. Hij vervolgt: "Toen was ik net één jaar oud en had ik te weinig verstand en kapitaal om daarvan te profiteren - dit maal laat ik echter deze kans niet opnieuw aan mijn neus voorbij gaan."
Net als Bill Miller rekenen wij erop dat aandelen - op de huidige waarderingen gekocht en met een beleggingshorizon van minimaal een jaar of vijf - uiteindelijk aantrekkelijke rendementen zullen opleveren. Een visie die in grote lijnen strookt met de verwachtingen van zakenbank Goldman Sachs waarover wij u eerder al eens hebben bericht. En met de visie van Warren Buffett.
Bill Miller, zelf een bewonderaar van Warren Buffett, is zoals u misschien weet fondsbeheerder bij Legg Mason Capital Management. Hij beheert daar een vermogen van vele tientallen miljarden. Maar bovenal is Bill Miller bekend om een opmerkelijke prestatie: tussen 1991 en 2005 wist hij ieder jaar de beurs te kloppen. Vandaar ook dat er nog altijd een grote schare beleggers is die het reilen en zeilen van Bill Miller tracht te volgen.
En volgens Bill Miller zijn aandelen momenteel goedkoop. Zeker relatief gezien. Aangaande grote Amerikaanse multinationals spreekt hij zelfs over een "once in a lifetime opportunity". Zijn recente schrijven vindt u hier zelf terug:
http://tinyurl.com/Bill-Miller-juli-2010
Redenatie
De actuele afkeer van aandelen is in de ogen van Bill Miller goed verklaarbaar: "Aandelen leverden de afgelopen tien jaar een negatief rendement op, terwijl 'risicoloze' obligaties juist sterk in waarde zijn gestegen. En nu obligaties ook nog eens het beste halfjaar in een decennium achter de rug hebben is dit voor velen het bewijs dat aandelen op termijn simpelweg de moeite niet waard zijn."
Niet enkel dit jaar leverden obligaties (vooralsnog) een beter rendement dan aandelen op, ook over de afgelopen periodes van 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 en 20 jaar presteerden obligaties beter dan aandelen. En zelfs over de afgelopen 25 jaar leverenden aandelen maar amper een iets beter rendement op dan de vaak risicoloos geachte obligaties.
De goede rendementen van obligaties worden volledig verklaard door de alsmaar dalende rente sinds begin jaren tachtig. Rente en obligaties zijn communicerende vaten: daalt de rente dan stijgen obligaties. En vice versa. Nu is de rente al sinds de jaren '80, toen we een periode van hoge inflatie kenden, gestaag aan het dalen. Dit verklaart dan ook het alsmaar stijgen van de koersen van obligaties, in het bijzonder van staatsobligaties van door beleggers 'veilig' geachte landen.
Vandaar ook dat vandaag de dag vele Westerse overheden goedkoper dan ooit tevoren geld kunnen lenen. Omdat de rente momenteel in de buurt van het absolute nulpunt bevindt is een verdere daling vrijwel uitgesloten (tenzij u rekent op een lange periode van deflatie; dan kan de rente wellicht nog net wat zakken). Het opwaartse koerspotentieel voor obligaties is daarmee in de ogen van Bill Miller uiterst beperkt. Wij zijn eenzelfde mening toegedaan.
Aandelen
Omgekeerd aan wat bij obligaties het geval is geldt dat bij aandelen de waarderingen juist verder weggezakt zijn. Met name grote multinationals hebben hun winsten het afgelopen decennium gestaag weten op te voeren. Hun koersniveaus bleven echter op z'n best stabiel, en daalden in veel gevallen zelfs. Daardoor daalden de waarderingen fors. Bill Miller stelt dat aandelen vergeleken met obligaties nu inmiddels de meest aantrekkelijke waarderingen kennen sinds 1951. Hij vervolgt: "Toen was ik net één jaar oud en had ik te weinig verstand en kapitaal om daarvan te profiteren - dit maal laat ik echter deze kans niet opnieuw aan mijn neus voorbij gaan."
Net als Bill Miller rekenen wij erop dat aandelen - op de huidige waarderingen gekocht en met een beleggingshorizon van minimaal een jaar of vijf - uiteindelijk aantrekkelijke rendementen zullen opleveren. Een visie die in grote lijnen strookt met de verwachtingen van zakenbank Goldman Sachs waarover wij u eerder al eens hebben bericht. En met de visie van Warren Buffett.
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